Lets talk facts five,
This is still a interesting bout, like you needed to no that. From a mental stand point this thing sounds like Silva Sonnen 2 where Chael was saying the same things Conor is saying now. How could I slap a guy around for 8 mintues and then lose like that, well Chael said the same thing about getting subbed in the last minutes? Folks Conors doing a mentally weak thing that D Cruz has enlightened the world to with certain fighters hes rematched and rescently beat. You have to except the lose to grow from it, saying it was fluke or he got lucky is a admission to yhe founding of MMA. Brazilian Jiujitsu specifically is a no fluke art there is no lucky subs either you get tapped or not. Striking at this level is not about luck its about what you get hit with and what you dont get hit with do you roll the shots do you land on the chin is your iutput high enough yes or no point blank. Since Conor is not excpeting it that’s another tick against him.
How this fight breaks could go anywhere but there are some paths that both guys could go, and end up with a better chance to win. A bout at 170 is actually going to happen at 170, which is a difference from the first bout. Meaning before these where to 155ers that just didn’t want to cut weight seeing how Nate fought on 11 days notice. Heres the issue Nates still going to push harder than Conor, (side note to all those Diaz haters Nate and Nick have been swimming since they were 4 you dummies lol, triathlons since they were teenagers moving on.) can because hes used to being in hell and pushing deeper into the inferno. The boxing is going to be different now with a full camp seeing higher level partners shots, meanwhile Conors best boxer was a paper champ and a couple amatuer that is underwhelimng in compariosn to the stable a Ten Goosen and the local boys in the Bay, and well it could be very clean on Nates part versus the first bout which was stalking with leads, and pressure. This could be a more furious pace with counters landing more frequently. Folks remember he has the record for most landed significant strikes against Cowboy at 155, aneqdotal yes but still something to remeber and that Maynard fight god damn he smoked Grey. Now Conor can win as well like I have outlines before in every fight I look at, everyones got a chance be it punchers or a chance to sub based on the nature of BJJ. However that’s not the path he needs to be on to really have the most potential for winning. Pointing Nate out is what I beilive hes working on and that is literally his best chance at winning. However that doesn’t mean he’s going to win this dancing away like some think. The mindset and gameplan is so important here the gameplan being number 1 in my eyes for both guys.
Still Conor has publicly announced hes plan will not change which as admirable but a falacy in my eyes. Conor had looked like he wants to, do the same thing hes been doing lots of flash with kicks, unlike Wonderboys flash with substance. Then he turns it into a boxing match while hes got people backing up. But when your style of boxing and skill level can’t deal with the pressure and accuracy that comes with a brawler boxer what happens isn’t good. I mean its not like Conor is this defensicve marvel rolling shots and slipping every counter and recounter no he slips on and off line and moves backwards thats it no roll no fient slip counter non of the basic high level striking defensive movements that everyone forgets about because of his high hand forwads and backwards movement, again its what Robin Black calls the flim fam but from a defensive view. I’ve been saying this since the first fight if Andre Ward, Joe Schilling, and Nick Diaz can’t take him out or fluster him enough that he can’t get off himself. Not I didnt say Nates indestructable becasue he isnt because Josh Thompson did it but to get to that point you have land major shots over and over again like Benson did aswell but to land those you have to be as big or bigger to force to the inside and maintain speed and therefore power. Conor is able to get insed but hes off balance whiling doing so and when off balance Nate can see all the tells. Is a KO out of the question no because after enough punishment anyone is capable. Now getting there is the hard part and staying composed and technical while seeing shots coming back and nowing you shot because he was about to knock you out is a major factor there aswell. Okay so again I see no major change similar ending different rounds probably but whatever I don’t see Conor KOing Nate but Conor could point him if he decides to play verses hunt, but to play with Nate you have to be better somewhere usually wrestling. We all know thats not the case here.
That’s the take don’t drink either guy’s sauce it means nothing promo wise its comes down to skill not so much the hype and push of this fight. Why because Conor delayed this bout at 200 and decided to lie to the fans he says he loves because of there support while he was a starving fighter. Meanwhile all people are talking about is let him train let him do this, fam he still lied to the world about being back on 200 lol. That shows me a major crack and puts it on display when he says well I handled it wrong but they did to, again not taking responsibility. Why can’t anyone see that maybe its something my momma said to me, don’t ever be loud and wrong you can be liud and you can be wrong but dont be both because you lose more and more when you do so.