This just gets better and better each time lol. Okay so Nathan Diaz Conor McGregor 2 and Frankie Aldo 2. My first analysis of these fights prior to my UFC 197 stuff but what the hell give the people what they want right?
Okay so who wins on paper in each Frankie and Nate more of the same there, eventually the UFC is gonna have to but Conor in the cage with that BEAST FROM THE EAST, with the only good Biggie intro. Why Frankie wins is a collection of reasons like with everything else in fighting.
Aldo gave something in his last Chad Mendes fight, years of hard Nova sparring which really a lighter weight version of Chute Boxe. Add in his wars and heavy aggressive old skool Thai striking style you lose alot when you refuse to use angles for defense instead of Roy Jones-ing it with your reflexes. Frankies the guy that took what Mark Hamanick put on display and pushed Aldo’s suspect cardio for all 5 rounds taking it to Aldo and losing the decision. However that fight was not for nothing, Frankies the only guy to dive on to Aldos leg kicks forcing scrambles as Aldo sprawled, only to then box Aldos face off. Frankies ever growing and layed waste to a guy that gave Aldo and Conor issues in mainly Mendes. Conor can say Chad came back to fast and all that but that’s all a smoke screen to take away from the question that of why he’s talking about Aldo and Frankie fighting him at 170 versus 145 because we all know Conor wasnt gonna cut 35 pounds in a week. I digress to my original point. Frankies better on the mat which is a given black belt of Renzo lineage D1 All American wrestling Frankie just has sharper tools and has been playing the long haul game of defense and movement to set up the offense, something he had to do at 155lbs when he was undersized because there was no 145lb division. The way Frankie does this is really a matter of choice striking he can do it or he can take him him down and do what he did to Cub to Aldo show the boxing pick a leg and go to work doing what made him famous.
Now can Aldo win for sure he still the 9 year reigning veteran. However somethings not the same in his ability to take on and we saw that in the Mendes 2 fight and to be perfectly honest after Conor touched his chin he might not have recovered yet. He maybe training but that means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of the brain, go talk to Ronda Rousey about that. However if he comes out like his 2013 old self then we have a fight and a possible resurgence on our hands. However like I said I just don’t see that going down he might but on his last hurrah so to speak, but Frankies boxing and understanding of how to dive into those leg kicks now changes rounds 1 and 2 that Aldo won in the original match up. If Aldo fades like he has shown to do more and more after each fight going into rounds 3, 4, and 5 with Frankie he will get but sleep standing or on the mat. That’s just fact of the matter and as a long time Aldo fan it sickens me to see the promotion using Aldo as this sacrifical offering to the casual audience just to promote there new star. I honestly think Aldo needs a year off before he even discusses a fight, but after Conor and Dana talked wild about him not accepting the bout at 196 it probably ticked Aldo off. Not to mention all the steriod accusations that Nova is dealing with from media members. Which really from a devils advocate stand point can be explained easily, Jose and Renan have been fighting pro since 2004 in the lighter weight classes. No duh they got slower and look flatter after ten years of non stop combat, that’s what should happen if your natural…right? However since this is a prize fight PEDS are still a possibility i.e Erick Silva cough cough. Okay so Jose wins by DS thats about it 1, 2, 3 he has to win 10 9 to beat Frankie because 4 and 5 he wont be the same and he will be in full defense mode aginist a fresh and hell raiser in Frankie Edgar.
Onto the main event that we have run back from UFC 196. Diaz McGregor 2, oh this will be cute won’t it kids? Alrighty then Diaz wins and possibly faster this time. Why is that, again a couple of reasons just follow me here. All his boys are going to he in camp namely Joe Schilling… pardon me “OH-IO… it’s required by law sorry” anyway Schilling will be in camp along with Shields who will be back after his BJJ super match and of course the BJJ Mofos themselves Cesar Gracie, Kron Gracie, and RICKSON GRACIE will be dropping knowledge around camp for sure. Nathan trained woth sparring after figuring Conor out is a man not to be trifled with. When I said figured out I mean that literally as much as figurative, he’s beat him mentally and physically. Nathans a phenomenal boxer with snappy punches in punches simple and complex combinations at the same time. 1 12 123 323 1323 all while moving on hard angles making his target square versus bladed which they want to be. Mix in he knows all Conors got for him was that rear hand which landed but only at the end of shots when it did catch Nate he smuthered the secondary punches with a headphone style defense you see in kickboxing alot. Conor was right in that sense that he was inefficient with his output but not of his choice but because Nate was tricking him. Hence the reaction Conor had after catching a clean jab on the chin. Sometjing my man Brendan Dorman explained in his video breakdown going with the theme of Conors singular weapon he was making amature mistakes. 1 his back leg was coming off the ground…usually I’m all for this but only if your stepping through to shift outside of that keep that footdown power generates from the rotation of the hips not a push off the back leg. Yeah thats standard and against most guys he gets away with that head hunter move but against a sparring partner of Andre Ward (like I stated from the jump but a talking point all the media members now want to touch on…. whatever) that ish aint flying. That’s why I really believe after a full camp where Nate gets his timining Conor might touch him twice with the straight counter or lead. On the ground it’s Nates world and thats just that Conor wont become a black belt of that level because Gunnar believes in him, thats not how grappling works and forcsure not how it works when strikes are added. So yeah a ready from round 1 Diaz versus Conor is really a know brainer for me personally. To parphrase Joe Rogan in the cage with a Diaz is just a running match they find your max work rate a push it from the jump and its not by wrestling your or by smasking you with punches. All those slaps a leaning check hooks and rolling counters exhaust the aggressore more that the defender. It’s an old corner stone of striking arts hitting air or not metting resitance is more tiring than hitting a massive heavy bag. Reistance allows for bounce so to speak, when you have to compensate for your weight in open after throwing everying behind it is why shadow boxing full clip is so tiring. Hence Nick Curson Speed of Sports methodology of training. When you miss or a shot gets rolled and you get countered or slapped on the ear a infectious bug is implanted in peoples psychosis. He had to get it back, and keeping chase harder and harder until the body had a systems failure. Meanwhile the Diaz boys can see that, then they get super technical. They are like Alonzo Washington with a shot gun, surgical with that ish. Hiting the chin dead on and the liver spot on. Cage work good luck not getting hit… rewind Nick vs Paul Daley folks. Nate wins everwhere, and if Conor forces that terrible hips high double leg and Nate pulls guard it will be a similar finish. If Conor stands with Nathan he runs the risk of getting KO’D like he was about to be in the first fight.
Could Conor win, yeah for sure it’s a fight but it’s a long shot. One way is using the Benson Henderson RDA method but something media people haven’t caught onto is Conor doesn’t have a devastating leg kick (Bryan Callen right again). It doesn’t fit the needs of his style of show all this fast flash to mask this 6, 4 or 2, Robin Black said it first and he’s been dead on since Chad Mendes was a 2 Aldo 2 etc. People think his flash also means he has substance but this isn’t Wonderboy Conors striking has no Thai or Dutch influence its all PKA inspired by TKD and Karate. That’s all good and all but don’t expect the same rules to apply for Conor that apply to Muay Thai influenced guys, Raymond Daniels let the cat out of that bag already. PKA styling has no leg kicking weapon as significant as the leg kick. The leg kick thing is a small part of that game plan after the leg kick comes the shot and dominate top game, yeah Conor doesn’t have anything for Diaz their so that plans pretty much non existent. The other way is pretty simple slip and rip but more slip then anything. I just don’t see it working out for him, Conor defensive ability is very reactionary and against a guy that spars with a boxer in Ward that’s techincally and physically so far ahead of Conor, Nates gonna dot him up eventually in round 2 on again. Start fast finish fast is Conor real key to victory either sprint to take Diaz out while your fresh or try to run with him….yeah that always works right?
It’s funny how this is all playing out Diaz wants it 155 but again Conoemr doesnt want to cut weight which is good to establish how ridiculous it is that everyone starves to cut to the lowest class to get a fictional advantage, when in reality it’s even because everyones cutting weight. Thats a post for another time though so I keep my outlook to myself. Nate wins again puts a nail in the Conor mysticism I put money on the underdog this time because eventually this analysis things got to pay off…
-Frankie and Diaz
, May Cardio Kings Reign forever