STOCKTON GOT THE CALL, 209 STAND UP!

Nate Diaz vs Conor McGregor at 170

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So as everyone knows RDA has been scratched from his super fight with Conor McGregor when you found out like me your first reaction was a long string of expletives. So who got the short notice call none other than Nate Diaz, yeah little brother of Nick Diaz and scrap pack member. Nick has played this game very well putting on a show against Micheal Johnson a guy who was on a hot streak at 155lbs. This fight isn’t at though it’s at 170lbs which leave me to wonder why isn’t Nick fighting but I digress. Nate is a match up where many people’s belief is it will be a stand-up war, where Conor is seen  at disadvantage reach wise and mental because he won’t be in Nates head, your not scaring or freaking Nate out your not angering Nate because he’s already ANGRY. The breakdowns coming but right now let’s look at the mental and logistic scenery of what about to go down in a week and a half time.

As we know Conor loves being in everyone’s head and Nate has been doing that game just like Nick does, arguably they are the best and first to really do it at a high level. Two of the most prolific mental warlords in the UFC, now the short notice thing plays into Nates lane because Nate can go off because there is nothing the brass can do because fights in 2 weeks. Logistics wise Nate can be his regular belligerent Diaz self, cursing up a storm calling Conor a bitch yelling out 209 Stockton. Nate could pull a Nick Diaz vs Robbie Lawler, but you’ll see what I think this fight will look like. Conor isn’t a slouch when it comes to the trash talk he does it on the camera only which may be an issue. As many people know Luke Sky Walker Rockhold called Conor out on his BS at the Go Big press event, the big man just told it like it is he talked about how back stage Conor had nothing to say. When he was face to face with Cowboy, RDA, or Aldo there nothing being said, the cameras are where Conor talks and Luke labeled Conor perfectly. Either way this mental stuff will go to whoever keeps it up on each level and Nate is that guy most of the time he will talk that talk off and on camera. The US fans love Diaz because he is the HOMIE from Stockton that has no filter and will bolster and pressure everyone on the mic from Dana to Conor nobody is safe because Nate usually backs it up.

So this fight plays out certain ways  two are more likely than any other for both guys. This fight goes multiple ways Nate wins with a stoppage or with a sub and Conor wins a decision or by TKO. Nate isn’t a slouch standing but his boxing isn’t as good as Conor, and kicking wise Conor has strong substance kicking like his back kick, front kick, and rear leg round house. They both use what Robin Black calls the “flim flam” kicks, throwing wheel kicks, question mark kicks, etc. distance in every kick. Grappling wise there’s not really a contest Nate trains with Kron Gracie and he’s a Cesar Gracie Black Belt folks if a clinch happens at 170 Nates taking it down jumping on a leg for a kneebar or pulling guard and making life difficult for Conor. Conors bread and butter are to do what Nate and Nick like to do but are kind of sloppy at, getting Nate to overextend and then crack him with the left hand. Conor is very smooth with his straight shots and pull counters and step in 1, 4 he nailed Dustin with before ending him by TKO. Conor at 170 is unknown because what does this weight mean is speed lost is fluidity lost because of his mass. Now look at Nate who is a naturally 170 who does triathlons and iron mans at 170 or damn close to it espically now that he’s rededicated to the sport he was ripped in his last fight and moved smooth and fluid in the cage where he was having fun again. High guard 1, 2 points or 1, 2, 3, 3. That’s a fight time call to see how good both guys look back at 170 for Nate and for the first time at 170 for Conor. Conor is the favorite on the feet because he’s smooth but his defense is suspect and I think Joe Schilling sees that exact same thing just like Nick saw it before he  fought Paul Daley. If Mini Mendes could leap and connect I’m pretty sure Nate could doubt him up and the question then becomes who lands first who lands harder and whose chin is better, at 170 all things change versus 145. Ace in the hole is Nates durability and ability to do things grappling that high-level BJJ players respect as high-level ability after grappling with “Giblert”, Jack Sheilds, and Kron Conors got nothing for Nate on the mats.

So stand-up leans to Conor but it’s a close gap and durability and conditioning leans to Nate of course but Conors got a chin he took some bombs from Chad.  Grappling wise it’s all Diaz, mental warfare wise who knows were going to find out who wins that pretty soon enough.

That’s the game it could look like Diaz vs Daley in Strikeforce or it could be the McGregor show again, but likely not. I thought Diaz was  gonna get lit up but I looked at film of Conor and Nate and I think that gap is close because Nate isn’t as sloppy as people think because his height and going to the body makes him look sloppy because he doesn’t move his head which is an issue. Conor is smoother and kicks more so he gets that edge on paper except this is at 170lb who knows what’s up now. I’ve got no pick here whoever wins is whatever because all this is really doing is setting up the bout between Conor and Robbie if Conor wins and to get Nate paid what hes worth to the company finally. If Conor loses RDA gets healthy and that bouts still there or the 145 belt, there are saftey valves for each option.

 

-AOC is OTTA here later Folks and Family

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